DTN Midday Livestock Comments          02/10 11:40

   Monday Brings Mixed Tones to the Livestock Complex

   Heading into Monday afternoon, continue to watch the lean hog complex and 
how it handles resistance pressure.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex is trading mixed into Monday's noon hour as the cattle 
contracts have regained some technical footing, but the lean hog contracts are 
facing some uncertainty as they reach long-term resistance thresholds. New 
showlists appear to be higher in all major feeding areas this week. March corn 
is up 4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.80. The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average is up 41.25 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle complex is currently continuing to build upon the support 
that was established last week after the market endured significant 
down-pressure. It's somewhat relieving to see the spot April contract 
maintaining its position above the market's 40-day moving average. Still, with 
only a thin hairline margin standing between the two price points, traders will 
continue to monitor that closely. It's still too early in the week for any cash 
cattle business to have developed, but with packers having to buy cattle 
cheaper last week, they'll likely fight tooth and nail to keep the cash 
market's trend headed in the same direction this week. February live cattle are 
up $0.77 at $201.55, April live cattle are up $0.82 at $197.57 and June live 
cattle are up $0.52 at $192.62.

   Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $206, which is $2.00 lower 
than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded 
for mostly $328 which is $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. 
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 72,948 head. Of that, 79% 
(57,574 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 21% 
(15,374 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.21 ($324.08) and select up $0.78 
($313.68) with a movement of 42 loads (26.11 loads of choice, 4.38 loads of 
select, 6.85 loads of trim and 5.06 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The added support of the live cattle market's higher trend has thankfully 
helped the feeder cattle contracts regain some gusto as currently, all the 
contracts are trading above $1.00 higher into Monday's noon hour. March feeders 
are up $1.90 at $266.70, April feeders are up $1.62 at $266.45 and May feeders 
are up $1.52 at $265.12. Yes, the corn complex is fronting a modest rally this 
morning as well, but for the time being the live cattle market's support seems 
to be outweighing any concern about the corn market's higher front.

LEAN HOGS:

   For most of the morning, the lean hog complex was trading higher but as the 
morning's noon hour approaches, some technical pressure is setting into the 
market. One would think that the substantially stronger pork cutout value this 
morning would help ease some technical pressure, but traders are uncertain 
about what direction to send the market at this junction. I think it's worth 
noting that this morning the carcass price isn't being inflated by simply one 
cut's gain, but rather instead by the vast majority of the cuts trading higher 
as the ham is up $6.27, the belly is up $5.38 and the rib is up $4.74 to name 
the big-hitting price jumps this morning. April lean hogs are down $0.07 at 
$92.10, June lean hogs are up $0.07 at $104.35 and July lean hogs are down 
$0.22 at $104.95.

   The projected lean hog index for 2/7/2025 is up $0.36 at $85.75, and the 
actual index for 2/6/2025 is up $0.34 at $85.39. Pork cutouts total 138.60 
loads with 124.09 loads of pork cuts and 14.52 loads of trim. Pork cutout 
values: up $3.86, $100.86. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct 
Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 
200 head have traded and that the five-day rolling average now sits at $85.64.

   **

   Come see DTN at the National Farm Machinery Show in Louisville, Kentucky, 
Feb. 12-15. Our 2025 Global Commodity Market and Weather Outlook presentation, 
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scheduled for 2:30-3:30 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 12; 8:30-10:00 a.m. Thursday, Feb. 
13; 10:00-11:00 a.m. Friday, Feb. 14. All times Eastern Standard.




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