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Monday, October 14, 2019  
 
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DTN Early Word Opening Livestock       10/14 06:23
   Traders Evaluate Partial Trade Deals Impact Early Monday

   Now that the dust has settled on the latest trade negotiations and an
agreement of a Phase 1 deal, traders will have a chance to focus on further
expectations of where this may lead markets over the near future.

By Rick Kment
DTN Livestock Analyst



Cattle: Steady   Futures: Mixed   Live Equiv: $137.98 +0.51*
Hogs:   Higher   Futures: Mixed   Lean Equiv: $ 82.29 +0.65**

*   based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   Cash business finally developed in the South Friday evening, with another
strong upward shift developing in cash cattle trade. Northern trade developed
earlier in the day Friday with trade from $170 to $172 per cwt, mostly $172 per
cwt and generally $2 per higher from the previous week. Southern trade was much
more sluggish to develop with feeders holding tight to elevated asking prices
until after the futures market close. This helped push prices $1 to $3 per cwt
higher from the previous week with prices at $108 to $109 per cwt through the
South on a live basis. Due to the late nature of trade, it is still uncertain
just how many cattle were sold in these areas, which will be reported Monday
morning. The continued bullishness in cash cattle trade over the last month is
helping to return the focus on tighter market-ready cattle supplies ahead and
likelihood that additional gains may develop through the end of October.
Futures trade is expected mixed early Monday following a consistent but strong
market really that ended the week. With prices holding gains of 70 to 77 cents
per cwt in all nearby contracts at the end of last week, the focus on
continuing the market rally over the last month will once again be the focus.
Currently December futures have pushed above $112 per cwt, for the first time
since early August and have posted a rally of nearly $13 per cwt since
September lows. Traders are becoming much more confident that the seasonal lows
are behind us, with continued focus on manageable supply levels through the end
of the year. Monday slaughter runs are expected at 117,000 head.
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